Trump’s initial moves will benefit China
The new U.S. leaders tariff decisions and foreign aid cuts play into Beijing's hands
In his first few weeks in office, U.S. President Donald Trump has followed through on a range of his campaign promises.
Though
some people who voted for Trump in November thought that his campaign
rhetoric was just that — promises designed to woo voters that probably
would not happen — in reality he has, since taking office again,
relentlessly pursued much of what he promised on the campaign trail.
And
while Trump has claimed that his policies will strengthen America, in
reality, thus far, the biggest winner of many of his actions has
actually been China, supposedly the United States’ biggest competitor,
and the focus of some of the uberhawks in the administration, like
Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In fact, given what the administration
has done so far, leaders in Beijing could well be holding champagne
toasts, even in this more austere Xi Jinping era.
For
one, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all goods coming into the United
States from China. Given the dependence on Chinese goods for many
American manufacturers such as textile makers, high-tech firms and
others, this decision already has led to an outcry in the U.S. business
community and rattled the New York Stock Exchange.
At
the same time, what the administration does not seem to realize is that
China is far more prepared for U.S. tariffs than they were eight years
ago. China has built the most dominating manufacturing industry in the
world, insulated itself from tariffs and has developed giant new markets
like Indonesia, Thailand and Brazil to reduce its reliance on exports
to the United States. Instead, tariffs will eventually cause pain for a
broader range of American businesses and consumers.
Beijing’s
confidence that Trump’s tariffs are not the threat they were eight
years ago is evident in how China has responded this time. The initial
Chinese retaliatory tariffs were relatively mild. But at the same time,
Chinese leaders warned Trump that if he did not eventually remove the
tariffs, Beijing had much more severe retaliatory measures that it could
deploy — retaliation that would badly damage some of America’s key
industries, ranging from automaking to high-tech to electric vehicles
and others.
Meanwhile,
the White House’s abrupt decision to freeze U.S. foreign aid and then
potentially all but dismantle the United States Agency for International
Development, or USAID, should have Chinese leaders grinning.
Washington’s possible decision to make deep cuts in the U.S. Foreign
Service would also hurt America’s image, even as China is expanding its
diplomatic presence globally.
That
assistance and Foreign Service presence have long been critical to
promoting U.S. soft power in Asia and many other regions of the world.
Without it, China is already portraying the U.S. as an uncaring and
chaotic power uninterested in helping the world amid a time when
democracy is failing.
China
is almost surely going to follow up on this rhetoric with new outlays
of aid and investment to many of the countries most dramatically
impacted by the collapse of outbound U.S. aid. It will also likely
continue increasing its ranks of diplomats, particularly in regions like
Africa and Latin America, where some nations feel neglected by
Washington. Beijing’s actions will only enhance its ability to project
soft power, which had already been rising in many places due to China’s
increasingly sophisticated public diplomacy.
In
Southeast Asia, for instance, China’s image has been improving in
recent years while the image of the United States has been declining, in
part because of U.S. support for the war in Israel. A massive decrease
in U.S. assistance will likely be followed by new Chinese pledges to
many of the states in Southeast Asia and a greater leadership role in
intra-Asian regional trade integration. Globally, some countries already
have been reaching out to China for more aid, such as Bangladesh and
others.
U.S.
public diplomacy has also gone off the rails, making China look more
stable and like a potential world leader. This failure is partly due to
the administration withdrawing from key multinational institutions, such
as the World Health Organization. This has allowed Beijing to position
itself as one of the two major powers most committed to preserving
aspects of the global order — despite China's actions to unwind the
current system and create one centered around Beijing.
American
diplomacy has swiftly weakened in other ways, too. The unclear and
constantly changing Trump administration's approach toward allies and
partners, including the imposing tariffs on some, has made Washington
less trustworthy, according to multiple Asian officials. They
desperately seek regional stability and fear that Asia, without U.S.
leadership, could unravel into conflicts.
The
media and pro-democracy aspects of U.S. soft power are also being
decimated. The White House is making huge cuts to organizations — once
supported by both Republicans and Democrats — that helped bolster
democratic movements in authoritarian states, provided independent
information to people living under autocrats, including in China, and
served as one of the few remaining conduits for accurate information
about what is going on inside the communist nation.
The
administration also reportedly plans to overhaul and likely make cuts
to the State Department's wing responsible for monitoring and countering
foreign disinformation. Additionally, it has appointed Darren Beattie —
who has virtually no experience in public diplomacy — to lead the State
Department’s public diplomacy efforts, a vital post for defining and
shaping America’s global messaging.
What’s
more, as Reuters reported, Beattie has made inflammatory comments about
women and minorities, including stating that "competent white men must
be in charge." He was also fired during the first Trump administration
for attending a conference that featured prominent white nationalists
and neo-Nazis. Yet, even after that, the Anti-Defamation League, which
monitors hate speech, said — and which was cited by Reuters — that
"Throughout the years, Beattie has participated in several conversations
and events organized by notorious racists, antisemites and white
supremacists and has continuously promoted a range of conspiracy
theories."
It
is further likely that the administration will try to transform the
media outlets that have traditionally been key in promoting U.S. soft
power. The White House has appointed a new leader for Voice of America,
which had earned a reputation as an independent and trusted news source
worldwide, even when covering negative events in the United States.
The
new leader, Kari Lake, seems poised to transform Voice of America into a
propaganda tool. Lake has been accused of election denial after
questioning the results of both the presidential and senatorial
elections in Arizona. If Voice of America loses its credibility, it
could become no different from outlets like China's Xinhua News Agency,
whose global influence has been spreading, or Russia’s state-owned news
agency TASS.
The
White House also has appointed a new head of the U.S. Agency for Global
Media, which oversees not only Voice of America but also other outlets
like Radio Free Asia. The new head has been a critic of aspects of U.S.
government-backed outlets for many years.
Yet
Radio Free Asia has built a reputation for offering true, vetted news
in a wide range of Asian languages spoken in autocratic countries. In
many cases, like Tibet, I have seen that Radio Free Asia is one of the
only ways people have to get accurate information about the world and
their own tightly controlled countries.
If
Radio Free Asia and its equivalents in Eastern Europe and other regions
are altered or shut down, Washington will lose another vital tool for
promoting its soft power while China will gain more opportunities to
expand the reach of its state-run outlets like Xinhua.
These are just some of the ways Trump’s early actions during his initial few weeks are resounding to Beijing’s benefit.
Joshua Kurlantzick is senior fellow for South and Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.